01 · 30 April 2026
The bearish count is dead: the invalidation crossed, and the count flips to the start of a cyclical bull sequence.
Bottom Line: May Cocoa shattered our invalidation ceiling with a forceful rally, completely negating the bearish setup. We have pivoted our primary scenario to a bullish macro structure, currently tracking a powerful third-of-a-third upward thrust.
Since the last update: Sellers entirely failed to materialize. Instead, buyers drove the market forcefully through our 2549 invalidation line. Despite the aggressive momentum, the thrust was cleanly capped perfectly within our higher 2610/2619 key resistance zone.
Lead scenario: The bearish count is dead. The choppy price action we were tracking was actually masking a leading diagonal for purple wave (i). The market is now executing a highly aggressive third-of-a-third advance. We have updated both the daily and weekly macro labels (minor waves 1 and 2) to reflect this broader bullish reversal.
Alt scenario: To protect this newly established bullish count, we have placed a strict structural invalidation floor at 2445. A drop below the 2500 alt trigger would serve as an early warning of near-term weakness, but as long as 2445 holds, the bulls are in control.
Big picture [UPDATED]: May Cocoa appears to have completed its multi-month macro correction and is initiating the early stages of a new cyclical bull sequence.
02 · 11 May 2026
Marking the end of ((iv)) of 3 of (3), keeping the bullish long-term outlook; one more dip held possible before wave ((v)) up.
London Cocoa (July) | Pre-Opening
May 11, 2026 · 10:47 (GMT+3)
Outlook: Neutral then Bullish | Wave ((iv)) extended down through 3188 but held 3122; 3115 Early Warning not cleanly closed below. Possible one more dip to 3062 / 3036 before wave ((v)) of red minor wave 3 up.
A clean break above the new 3319 Early Tell will hint that wave ((v)) up has started. The market may dip once more to 3062 / 3036 (with 2935 as deeper fallback) before reversing. A clean close below 3115 will warn us the count is in trouble. Line in the Sand at 2536.
Preferred count [Repeating]: Wave ((iv)) of red minor wave 3 is extending down as a flat (a-b-c). Wave (c) of ((iv)) has reached the lower key zone, breaching 3188 but holding 3122 with the 3115 Early Warning not cleanly closed below. One more dip to 3062 / 3036 cannot be ruled out before wave ((v)) of red minor 3 launches up. New Early Tell at 3319 added to give early signal of wave ((v)) start.
Big Picture [Repeating]: Bullish. Cocoa has completed its multi-month macro correction and is propelling into a new cyclical bull sequence. Long-term Early Warning below 2649. Long-term Invalidation below 2419.
03 · 12 May 2026
Calling the top of 3 of (3), bigger picture still bullish. The high printed that morning; a deep ten-day decline followed.
London Cocoa (Jul 2026) | Pre-Open
May 12, 2026 · 10:24 (GMT+3)
Neutral. Approaching a minor top at the listed key levels. The market closed exactly at 3486 and used the 3449-3418 zone as support. Reaching 3525 / 3569 / 3625 is possible but not necessary. Above that we may be in an extended wave ((v)) of red wave 3.
Big Picture: Bullish. Weekly wave (3) progressing higher toward 4051. Below 2649 warns; below 2419 invalidates.
Projection Score: ✓2 ⌛2 — 3486 reached and respected as resistance; 3449-3418 zone held as support; 3525 / 3569 still ahead; 3214 EW and 3084 Invalidation active.
04 · 26 May 2026
Calling the end of wave (4) after a wrong bearish call two days earlier. The post opens by scoring itself wrong.
London Cocoa (Jul 2026) | Pre-Open
May 26, 2026 · 10:28 (GMT+3)
Bullish then Neutral. The bearish call from Friday was wrong: Cocoa held the 2,742 area and rallied. The 2,746 low now looks like the bottom of wave ((c)) of Y of (4). Small relabel: we've increased the degree, so we're now finishing wave (4), with alternation between waves 2/4 and (2)/(4) reading better. Below 2,742 invalidates. A close above 2,957 will be the first hint the market is heading higher; a cross above 3,351 will be a major signal.
Big Picture [Updated]: Bullish. Wave (4) finishing as part of an ongoing wave (3) up toward 4,051. Below 2,649 warns; below 2,419 invalidates.
Projection Score: ✗1 ⌛1 — Friday's bearish call was wrong; Cocoa held 2,742 and rallied. Degree relabel (academic, not scored) puts us at the end of wave (4). Bullish recovery pending; close above 2,957 first hint, above 3,351 major signal; below 2,742 invalidates.
05 · 11 June 2026
Leaning to wave E done, and naming the level that would overturn the read. It fires four days later.
London Cocoa (Jul 2026) | Post-Close / Pre-Open
June 11, 2026, 23:34 (GMT+3)
Neutral then Bullish. Cocoa kept consolidating, holding the hint and warning levels, so little to add. We still lean toward the down move being wave E, up either way. A close above 2,968 hints; above 3,028 reinforces; above 3,264 reinforces even further. Below 2,864 rings an alarm and points to wave C of (4) as an ending diagonal; below 2,742 invalidates.
Big Picture [Repeating]: Neutral then Bullish. Triangle (4), possibly in wave C or E. A close above 3,030 hints; above 3,263 reinforces; below 2,784 rings an alarm; below 2,640 invalidates.
06 · 15 June 2026
The alarm level fired and switched the read to the alternate; the market formed a small D and E, then thrust out of the triangle.
London Cocoa (Sep 2026) | Post-Open
June 15, 2026, 13:34 (GMT+3)
Neutral then Bullish. Friday's dip below 2,864 negated the E scenario and switched us to the C alt. Cocoa formed a small D and E, then this morning thrust out of the triangle in what looks like wave (i); we now seem to be in wave (ii). The alt: this is just ((c)) of D, with price action to decide. A close above 3,154 hints; above 3,262 reinforces; below 2,937 rings an alarm; below 2,845 invalidates.
Big Picture [Repeating]: Neutral then Bullish. Triangle (4), possibly in wave C or E. A close above 3,030 hints; above 3,263 reinforces; below 2,784 rings an alarm; below 2,640 invalidates.
07 · 2 July 2026
A second triangle identified one degree down, inside wave (5): ((d)) and ((e)) still to come before the thrust up in 5 of (5).
London Cocoa (Sep 2026) | Post-Open
July 02, 2026, 12:50 (GMT+3)
Bullish. Price couldn't breach 3875-3933 or trigger our 3874 line, going sideways in a triangle; now in wave ((c)) of 4. Expect ((d)) and ((e)) before the thrust up in wave 5 of (5) toward 4129/4203. A close above 3874 adds confidence, above 4019 boosts; But, below 3661 lowers it, 3424 drops.
Big Picture [Repeating]: Bullish. Triangle (4) is done; we're now in wave (5) up toward 4,051, or alt wave 1 of (5). Below 2,897 lowers confidence; below 2,638 invalidates.
08 · 10 July 2026
Calling the top of the ten-week advance, and projecting wave (A) down to a stated target zone.
London Cocoa (Sep 2026) | Pre-Open
July 10, 2026, 11:03 (GMT+3)
Bearish. Our alt for one more high was right: price stopped at 4714, tested the 4764-4794 zone, then closed beneath it. The wave (5) top may be in, or needs one more push, before a sharp reversal into wave (A) down toward 3715-3673. Close below 4586 adds confidence, 4439 boosts.
Big Picture [Repeating]: Bullish. Triangle (4) is done; we're now in wave (5) up toward 4,051, or alt wave 1 of (5). Below 2,897 lowers confidence; below 2,638 invalidates.
09 · 20 July 2026
Navigating a complex correction. The short-term bottom call was right; reading it as the end of (A) was not.
London Cocoa Futures (Sep 2026) | Post-Open
July 20, 2026, 13:40 (GMT+3)
Bullish, cautiously. Instead of C of (A), price action better fits W-X-Y of (A) done, ((a)) of A of (B) missed 4298, ((b)) double-bottomed at our 3954, ((c)) up next. The ((iii))-of-C alt stays strong. A close above 4102 adds, crossing 4289 boosts; But, crossing below 3954 lowers, a close below 3856 drops.
Big Picture [Repeating]: Neutral then Bullish. Wave (5) of ((A)) has topped, and we're now in wave (A) of ((B)) toward 3477/3304/3241 in a multi-week correction. A close below 3742 adds confidence; But, a close above 4473 drops, a cross above 4782 invalidates; a cross below 2,638 drops.
10 · 28 July 2026
Calling a bottom for Z of (A) at the 3,768 line, and the multi-week rally to follow. The market bottomed that afternoon.
London Cocoa Futures (Sep 2026) | Pre-Open
July 28, 2026, 11:16 (GMT+3)
Neutral then Bullish. Our ((X)) alt played out: 3907 fired and the drop resumed. (a) and (b) are done; (c) of ((y)) of Z of (A) should bottom soon, reversing higher in A of (B) up. A close above 3907 adds confidence, close above 4150 boosts; But, a cross below 3674 drops.
Big Picture [Updated]: Neutral then Bullish. Wave (A) is bottoming; next, a multi-week rally as part of wave (B) of ((B)). A close above 4178 adds confidence, a cross above 4501 boosts; But, a close below 3742 lowers, a cross below 3483 drops.
11 · 6 August 2026
Calling the top of (B), and the move down in (C). Open at the window's close.
London Cocoa Futures (Sep 2026) | Pre-Open
August 6, 2026, 11:11 (GMT+3)
Bearish. The ((v)) surge came as called and fired our 4495, topping at 4570, 16 short of the 4586 line, then fell hard. We read ((i)) of 1 of (C) of ((B)) down. A close below 4298 adds confidence, cross below 4031 boosts; But, a close above 4493 lowers, crossing 4570 invalidates.
Big Picture [Repeating]: Neutral then Bearish. The multi-week rally in (B) of ((B)) is underway. A cross above 4501 boosts; But, a close below 3742 adds confidence that (C) of ((B)) is underway, and a cross below 3483 boosts it.
Each post is reproduced complete and unaltered: text, footer, and chart exactly as recorded. Any emphasis is ours and is marked as such. Times are the publication stamps; each chart carries its own TradingView export stamp, and the earlier ones an earlier account handle. The post format tightened over the period covered.
Window: 30 April to 6 August 2026. The sequence ends at the window's close. Current notes are delivered on trial.
Two weeks: the notes for the covered markets, by email.
Request trial access